Sunday, September 1, 2013

Bullpen Mismanagement Condemns Yankees in Playoff Pursuit

   Before the question or concern is raised - no, I will not be writing a recap of today's (9/1) Yankees game, and I will not be writing recaps of Yankees games in the sense of summarizing the events as they happened. There are plenty of excellent sites out there that do that job better than I do, and to do one myself would be tedious, redundant, and a complete waste of time. If you want the recap of today's game, my personal favorite is RiverAveBlues. Check them out. They're stellar.

   Rather, what this piece will focus on is mismanagement and letting a team off the hook when they're right there for the taking. Last time the Yankees played the Baltimore Orioles was July 5-7 at Yankee Stadium, a weekend series where the Orioles entered the series a game and a half (henceforth 1.5) ahead of the Yankees in the standings. Behind a complete game, two-run gem by Ivan Nova and a 9th inning rally, the Yankees won the opener 3-2. The following afternoon, Andy Pettitte avoided major trouble, limiting the Orioles to four runs in six innings, the Yankees erased a 3-0 deficit, and ultimately prevailed to win 5-4, taking a half game lead over the Orioles in the process with a chance to finish the sweep and move 1.5 games ahead of the Orioles in the process. For eight innings, the plan was being followed. Hiroki Kuroda threw seven shutout innings, David Robertson bridged the gap in the eighth, and the Yankees had the greatest Closer of all-time, Mariano Rivera, on the mound to finish the game. Of course, baseball being the way it is, sometimes things don't go to plan. With one out, Nick Markakis hit a scary fly ball to right field that had home run distance but was narrowly foul. He singled on the next pitch. The next batter was Adam Jones, and he took advantage of another mistake by Rivera, who left a fastball (not cutter) in the wrong place, and Jones promptly deposited it in the left-center field seats to give the Orioles a 2-1 lead and ultimately the winning margin. Having escaped Yankee Stadium with a stirring victory, the Orioles would win eight of their next eleven games, with the All-Star Break nestled in between there.

   Fast forward to August 30, and the same situation as before presented itself after the Orioles had a rather poor month of August, and the Yankees had surged in the previous three weeks to rescue themselves from the verge of a losing record to being back within 1.5 of the Orioles in the playoff race, and now only five games out of a playoff spot themselves, trailing the Oakland Athletics for the second wild card. The first two games followed a different tenor than the first series had, but the results were the same. Behind a fifth-inning onslaught, the Yankees pounded notorious Yankee Killer Miguel Gonzalez on Friday en route to an 8-5 victory. On Saturday afternoon, Ivan Nova continued his mastery of the Orioles, following up his tremendous outing in July with yet another complete game, this time without any runs allowed, necessary since the Yankees only netted a pair of runs courtesy of Robinson Cano, en route to a 2-0 victory that, for the first time since July 6, lifted the Yankees above the Orioles in the standings, and reduced their deficit in the AL Wild Card race to 3.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays, the closest the Yankees had been to a playoff position in a long period of time. In recent weeks, the biggest concern about the Yankees' playoff chances had not so much been about their deficit on the #2 Wild Card spot (which has shifted between the Rays and A's, depending on which team was hot and which team was cold), but the number of teams that lay in their path. For a while, besides the A's and Rays holding down playoff spots, the Orioles, Cleveland Indians, and even the Kansas City Royals sat ahead in the overall standings. A recent seven game losing streak has brought the Royals back underneath, but with the victories in the first two games against the Orioles, coupled with the five-game losing streak Cleveland had endured while facing the Braves and Tigers on the road (in what can plausibly be argued as being the Indians last tough road games of 2013), the Yankees were finally, if for just a day, relieved of their concern for those three teams who occupied the non-playoff spots in front of them. Trailing by only 3.5 games with no teams in front of them, the Yankees were nearing territory where they controlled their playoff fate over their last 25 games, as they have three games at Yankee Stadium in the penultimate series of 2013 (and the final home series of 2013).

  As the calendar flipped for the final time in the 2013 regular season, from August to September, the Yankees once again took on the Orioles on a Sunday afternoon under the Bronx sky with a chance to sweep the Orioles and send the Birds packing with a 1.5 game deficit on the Yankees in the standings. For six innings, it appeared this plan was following suit. Andy Pettitte had been solid if not spectacular, maneuvering through six innings of scoreless ball while the Yankees had taken some advantage of Baltimore starter Wei-Yin Chen's ineffectiveness (3 ER, 4 H and a career-high 5 BB) to build a 3-0 lead going into the 7th inning. It could likely be argued the Yankees should've been able to net more than they ultimately scored (1-7 with RISP in those first six innings), but with three innings to go and a fully rested bullpen off Nova's complete game the day before, the Yankees were in position to finish this sweep opportunity off and continue their push.

   Of course, this is where the story takes a downturn. Andy Pettitte, sitting at 86 pitches, was sent back out for the 7th inning. Right from the start, this was a curious decision. Pettitte, 41, is the oldest starting pitcher in the American League, and despite a return to form in recent starts (0.75 ERA in his previous four starts), he had shown signs of fatigue as he eclipsed the 85 pitch mark, or pitched into the 7th inning. On 8/16 against the Red Sox, he began to get hit quite hard and could've left the game in much more danger if not for some fortuitous baserunning from David Ortiz. On 8/22 against the Blue Jays, he was taken out after six as he had already reached 100 pitches and been fortunate to escape a few prior jams that kept his line rather clean. On 8/27, again against the Blue Jays, he lasted seven shutout innings, but only threw 86 pitches. A clean, effortless outing where he was taken out before he had a chance to tire. Today, he was sitting around that 85 pitch mark, and even though it was the bottom of the Orioles lineup coming up, both Mike Morse and Daniel Valencia already had hits on the game against Pettitte, and with a fully rested bullpen in a crucial game, this was no game to be messing around with trying to squeeze outs from a tiring pitcher when better options were in the bullpen.

   I seldom disagree with most of Joe Girardi's bullpen decisions, given that, if he has shown one thing since being named Yankees manager in 2008, it's that he has an excellent ability to mold bullpens. Conversely, one flaw that often has on display is a degree of rigidness; with Mariano Rivera, it's understandable that he tries to limit him to three-out outings, due to his age. With David Robertson, it is a bit more perplexing. In 2009 and 2010, David Robertson did not hold high positions on the Yankees' bullpen hierarchy; in 2009, the Yankees set-up man role (8th inning guy) was originally for 2008 stand-out Brian Bruney; eventually Phil Hughes took this role over and thrived to the point of being almost unhittable and locking down the 8th inning. In 2010, Joba Chamberlain was originally slated for that gig; injuries and ineffectiveness eventually cost him the job in the final two months of the season, when Kerry Wood was acquired from the Indians and pitched so well that he eventually swiped the job late in the season. In 2011, Rafael Soriano was signed from the Rays to a rather exorbitant contract to be the 8th inning pitcher and potentially the heir to Rivera's throne; ineffectiveness and a two-month injury opened the door for Robertson to pitch the 8th inning, and he has remained there, more-or-less, ever since. In many ways, this has been a good thing for the Yankees, providing some long-term security in that inning as well as perhaps giving the Yankees and their fans a look at their 2014 closer after Rivera retires.

   It does have drawbacks at times, however, and a day like today is that day. Before rising to the role of set-up man, David Robertson was often deployed by Girardi as the proverbial "fireman" middle reliever; with his blazing fastball and curveball, he has always been able to rack up strikeouts, a vital necessity when coming in to try and stifle burgeoning rallies. However, having ascended to the role of set-up man has now left a hole in that fireman capacity, one that has never really been filled. In 2013, Shawn Kelley and Boone Logan have been used in a tag-team capacity of sorts to fill that role, and have generally done a good job, but both pitchers have their drawbacks. Shawn Kelley, in particular, has seen a meteoric rise in his strikeout rate since joining the Yankees, but is very susceptible to giving up home runs. Boone Logan, frustratingly, tends to get hit much harder by same-sided hitters than opposite-sided, defeating the concept of him being a lefty specialist, in some capacities.

   In any case, today ended up being a day for one of those drawbacks. Personally, I felt Shawn Kelley should've been out there to start the 7th inning, where he would start off with the bases empty and, despite recent struggles, would not be endangering his team if he got off to a rough start and needed to be taken out. Instead, when he entered the game, with two men on and no outs, he was now entering a situation where giving up a home run would turn the game on its ear; it got worse than expected, as he allowed a base hit to the first batter he faced (Matt Weiters) and then gave up a three-run home run to J.J. Hardy, turning a 3-0 Yankees' lead into a 4-3 deficit in, almost literally, the blink of an eye. This is the problem right here - being a homer-prone pitcher, Girardi simply did not bring in Kelley in a position where he could succeed under reasonable circumstances; power fastball/slider pitchers are prone to home runs since a well-timed fastball or hanging breaking ball can be hit out of the park with "relative" ease. If Kelley was not going to start the 7th inning, then it should have been David Robertson who was brought in to pitch with two runners on and no outs. This is the inherent flaw with having such rigid bullpen roles for non-closer jobs - you are handicapping your options unnecessarily, and affecting your team's chance of winning because you are saving a better pitcher for what will likely be a lower leverage role. The 7th inning was the biggest inning of the game, the highest leverage spot to that point, and in a huge game such as this one, with heavy playoff implications on the line for both teams, caution needs to be thrown to the wind, and the best non-Closer reliever needs to be deployed where needed, 8th inning be damned. You have to have an 8th inning lead to worry about how to protect an 8th inning lead, and David Robertson provided the best opportunity for that to happen. Girardi simply screwed that up.

   No, wait, it gets better. Kelley was removed from the game before Hardy even reached home plate after trotting the bases, and Boone Logan did nothing to help stop the inferno that was swarming Yankee Stadium. A bunt single and nine-pitch walk to Nick Markakis (there's the "not getting same-sided hitters out" problem again) brought Manny Machado and Adam Jones to the plate, and Boone Logan out of the game. Here-in lies yet ANOTHER mistake, perpetuated in part by the Yankees' implausible decision to keep Joba Chamberlain on the roster despite being an impending free agent who will not return to New York, and has been plagued by extreme ineffectiveness this year (truthfully, I cannot wait until that guy is off the team). Preston Claiborne would likely have filled this role, but he was demoted last Sunday to keep Chamberlain on the roster while Claiborne would be promoted back to the top roster after the Single-A Tampa season ended (a circumvention of the 10-day demotion/promotion rule). Claiborne can return for Monday's game against Chicago, but that's about a day late and a dollar short in regards to Sunday's game. With no other seemingly sufficient right-handed pitchers deemed capable by Girardi, he once again eschewed the idea of bringing in Robertson to try and hold the deficit at 4-3, and brought in Chamberlain. After a generous bunt out by Machado, a pop-up that accomplished nothing (and, truthfully, Manny Machado sacrifice bunts far more than he actually should), Adam Jones promptly hammered a hanging slider over the dead center field wall, the second Earl Weaver home run of the inning that had taken a 3-0 Yankees lead and turned it into a 7-3 Orioles lead, a scoreline that would not change again.

   In effect, what can we gather here? We can gather that the Yankees held a 3-0 lead going into the final three innings, and their two best relief pitchers, Robertson and Rivera, two pitchers who had only pitched in one game over the past calendar week (both pitched on Friday), never even warmed up in the bullpen, let alone pitched. Instead of deploying Robertson in the 7th inning to try and mitigate an Orioles rally, instead Girardi opted to use his spate of C-calibre middle relievers who, instead of limiting the damage, instead blew the game wide open, and allowed the Orioles to, once again, escape Yankee Stadium with a salvage victory in the final game, and once again escape Yankee Stadium still a half a game ahead of the Yankees in the overall standings (and with the Indians win over the Tigers, the results of Saturday were annulled, with two more games off the schedule).

   All in all, the final result was a very irritating loss that has the potential to be a season-killing loss if the Yankees cannot recover in time from it. They play the White Sox in a Labor Day matinee back at Yankee Stadium, a quick turnaround from Sunday's disappointment. Furthermore, despite Chicago holding a dismal 56-79 record on the season, the White Sox swept the Yankees at U.S. Cellular Field in early August, which appeared to be the point in time when the Yankees season hit its nadir, punctuated by the Yankees losing the final game of that series in extra innings when, with a 5-4 lead and two outs in the 12th, Adam Warren induced a very weak ground ball to second base hat would have ended the game, until he decided to try and field the ball himself, muffed it, and gave the White Sox an extra out to work with, an extra out they took full advantage of with Alexei Ramirez getting a base hit and Alejandro de Aza hitting a walk-off two-run triple to give the Yankees what was, at the time and perhaps still, the most mind-numbing defeat of the 2013 campaign.

   Sitting at 3.5 games behind the slumping Tampa Bay Rays, who were swept by the Oakland Athletics with a 5-1 defeat on Sunday and now face the surging Anaheim Angels for four games at Angel Stadium this week, all is not lost with at defeat, necessarily. If the Yankees rebound against the White Sox and take care of business (easier said than done, as seen in the previous paragraph) and the Angels win two games from the Rays at home, the deficit shrinks to two games with 23 games still to play, a very do-able deficit with those three remaining head-to-heads still to be played. But what has to be remembered is that the Tampa Bay Rays are notoriously streaky and have been for the past number of seasons. They are only 11-17 in their past 28 games, but not long before that, they rolled off a 22-3 stretch that included a very impressive 8-2 roadtrip through the AL East right after the All-Star Break. The Rays have lost six of seven games, but when the three and four hitters in their lineup (Evan Longoria and Wil Myers) are slumping the way they are, it should really be no surprise they have struggled to score runs and win of late. That is not going to last, and there-in lies the chief problem - the Yankees went 3-3 against the Blue Jays and Orioles in a week where the Rays went 1-6. That's not good enough. The Yankees needed to win at least another game or two to really make a dent in that deficit. Now they need some more fortune to favor them as the Rays continue their 10-game west coast trip in Anaheim. With the Orioles and Indians playing each other for three games this week in Cleveland, there is a guaranteed winner and loser in those three games, and if the Yankees do what they should against the White Sox, there is a good chance they will slip back past the Orioles in the standings.

   One loss, no matter how crippling on a given day, is not a debilitating loss, especially since the Rays lost and the deficit remained 3.5 games. What can be crippling is whether the effects of the loss carry-over to Monday. The Yankees face Chris Sale on Tuesday, and if there is an "acceptable" game to lose to a hapless team like the White Sox, it is the game where, arguably, the best pitcher in the American League in 2013 is pitching. The Yankees need to put Sunday behind them quickly if they are to get back on the horse that has gotten them to within striking distance of a 2013 American League Wild Card playoff spot.

  Hopefully, Joe Girardi will hop back on the horse that has led him to generally good bullpen management, too.

Friday, August 30, 2013

MLB Observations: August 29, 2013

Only nine games today, with some teams making their necessary flights across North America to get to their next cities, in some cases to begin some very crucial series'. Today's events and opinions:

ANAHEIM (60-72) VS. TAMPA BAY (75-57) (ANA 2-0) - Jason Vargas was in early trouble with a bases loaded, 1 out situation in the 1st inning, but navigated past that en route to what was about the most efficient outing possible for him. He still surrendered his fair share of walks and soared into the triple digit pitch count range in the 6th inning; par for the course for a soft-tossing, nibbling LHP. That said, the Rays and their league-best offense against LHP was incapacitated by Vargas, only collecting two hits in seven innings, and despite the best efforts of the ever-wild Dane de la Rosa and Ernesto Frieri, Anaheim escaped Tropicana Field taking two of three from the Rays. Anaheim is 6-5 at Tropicana Field in the past three seasons, but negate this strong performance with their 1-9 home record against the Rays in that span; these two meet for four more games next week at Angel Stadium. Of note, Jake Odorizzi received a spot start today for Tampa Bay and pitched five innings of one run ball, ultimately receiving his first decision of the season in his fourth start with the major league club. Today's originally scheduled starter, David Price, was pushed back to face the Oakland Athletics on Friday night at the Oakland Coliseum, the two teams separated by a scant .5 games in the Wild Card race. After the Rays game ended today, the A's were in position to jump over the Rays by .5 of a game in advance of their weekend series, however...

OAKLAND (75-58) VS. DETROIT (78-56) (DET 7-6) - ...Grant Balfour blew a 6-3 9th inning lead, with a pair of four-pitch walks, a run scoring single from Victor Martinez, and a walk-off three-run home run for Torii Hunter with two outs to save the Tigers from a four game sweep at Comerica Park against the A's. For the fourth straight game, the A's jumped all over the Tigers starting pitcher, this time the impeccable Max Scherzer, and the A's took a 6-1 lead into the 6th, in addition with Miguel Cabrera departing the proceedings with an abdominal injury after the 5th. Despite the disappointing loss, Oakland still tagged 34 runs in 31 innings against the Tigers in this series, but ultimately still lost .5 of a game on the Texas Rangers these past four days and blew a golden chance to jump ahead of the Rays before Friday.

KANSAS CITY (69-64) VS. MINNESOTA (57-75) (8-1 KC) - Kansas City won their sixth straight game at Target Field from Minnesota, taking a 3-1 decision today and moving to within six games of Oakland in the AL Wild Card race. Likely still far too little far too late, but they have rebounded nicely from their seven-game losing streak and 2-5 homestand that threatened to truly torpedo their season.

PHILADELPHIA (61-73) VS. NY METS (60-72) (11-3 NYM) - Mets salvaged a home split with the Phillies and remain percentage points in 3rd place in the NL East. 

MILWAUKEE (59-74) VS. PITTSBURGH (77-56) (4-0 MIL) - Pirates shutout at home by the Brewers with a chance to move back even with St. Louis in the wild card race, as they drop two of three at home to the long-forgotten Brewers. Yikes. Pittsburgh falls to a very underwhelming 6-7 over their past 13 games.

MIAMI (49-83) VS. WASHINGTON (68-65) (9-0 WSH) - Ian Desmond, Jayson Werth, and Bryce Harper all homered tonight for the surging Nationals, sweeping Miami with an effortless victory behind the flawless Gio Gonzalez. Miami is still en route to a 100 loss season. Washington is now within six games of Cincinnati in the NL Wild Card race, but with no head-to-head meetings left on the docket, the task still remains quite tall.

CLEVELAND (71-62) VS. ATLANTA (81-52) (3-1 ATL) - How predictable was this, by the way? Cleveland was swept out of Atlanta by the unbeatable-at-home Atlanta Braves, and the Indians are the absolute definition of a league average team; they feast on the lousy teams but cannot beat the teams that are better than them. Color me underwhelmed. They play the Tigers this weekend in Detroit, where their 2-4 road record is actually significantly better than their 1-9 home record against them, before their schedule eases up with plenty of White Sox and Twins down the stretch. They now sit four games out of a playoff spot in the AL Wild Card race.

BALTIMORE (71-61) VS. BOSTON (79-56) (3-2 BAL) - Pretty much a must-win game for the Orioles to stay in the division race and Wild Card race, and Chris Tillman pitched up to his All-Star label in the process. The Orioles broke a four-game losing streak against Boston in the process, and now face the Yankees this weekend, while the Red Sox move on to face last-place Chicago at Fenway this weekend.

Thursday, August 29, 2013

MLB Observations: August 28, 2013

   No, I do not watch every baseball game on a given day. If I watched a game, there's likely to be more substance. If I didn't, any only caught highlights or a boxscore, well, it's gonna be very obvious. In any case:

NY YANKEES (70-63) VS. TORONTO (60-74) (7-2 TOR) - This was ugly. Hiroki Kuroda, who had an ERA of 2.33 before facing the Red Sox three starts back, instead has now gotten rocked in three straight outings, this time receiving zero help from his catcher, Chris Stewart, who made a mind-boggling double screw-up in the first inning, dropping a 3rd out strikeout and then throwing the ball away to first, allowing the Blue Jays to double their early 2-0 lead to 4-0, a deficit that only grew over the next two innings and one the Yankees could not dig out of. After a very successful stretch where the Yankees posted a 11-3 record, they went 2-4 on a crucial road-trip and will come back to the Bronx potentially 6.5 back of Tampa Bay and 6 back of Oakland in the Wild Card race. A devastating road-trip, really. A ten-game homestand looms agains the Orioles (3), White Sox (3), and Red Sox (4). In all truth, the Yankees need to go 8-2 and possibly 9-1 at a minimum to keep their ever-fainting chances adrift in Mariano Rivera's final season. This won't be easy to accomplish given their combined 10-17 record against those three teams in 2013. Lowlights.

Now the rest of the league:

CHICAGO (56-77) VS. LOS ANGELES (78-55) (4-0 LA) - The big news to come out of this game, of course, was the fifth inning benching of phenom Yasiel Puig. After an incident last week in Miami with a late arrival to the ballpark for a game which saw him promptly removed from the starting lineup, Puig was pulled from the game today, and it would appear to be because of poor body language. Puig has finally begun to experience some of the troubles all young hot-shot Major Leaguers eventually go through, and he has not had much fun with it, and it now appears his struggles at the plate are beginning to negatively affect his demeanor when on the field, which is something that simply cannot happen, especially for a talent as raw as Puig who already has a bit of a problem of air-mailing the cutoff man in an attempt to always try to make the big play in the field. Hopefully for Puig and the Dodgers, this matter is nipped in the bud now, rather than continuing to become a propsering weed that can derail the beautiful garden Los Angeles has cultivated since June 22. In any case, Ricky Nolasco picked up where he left off from a stellar start against the Red Sox in his last appearance, and is proving himself to be an impeccable #4 starter that the Dodgers sorely needed. 11 strikeouts as Los Angeles took two of three from the Cubs and finished the season series 6-1 against the Northsiders. Highlights.

TEXAS (78-55) VS. SEATTLE (59-73) (12-4 TEX) - Last time out against Texas on August 17, Felix Hernandez gave up five runs in five innings, giving away an early 2-0 Mariners lead en route to a 15-3 Texas rout of Seattle. He picked up where he left off that day, giving up a career high eight earned runs in only three innings pitched as the Rangers swept the Mariners with a 12-4 decision at Safeco. Texas is now 19-6 in August and maintained their 2.5 game lead on the Oakland A's in the AL West. Highlights.

BALTIMORE (70-61) VS. BOSTON (79-55) (4-3 BOS) - The Orioles blew a 3-1 7th inning lead thanks to a Dustin Pedroia 2-run groundball single with two outs and then another two-out rally thanks to a fortuitous Green Monster by Jarrod Saltalamacchia and a bloop shot hit by Mike Carp over Manny Machado's shoulder at 3rd in the 8th, lifting the Red Sox to a comeback 4-3 win to take the second game from Baltimore and set up for the sweep on Thursday, also evening the season series at 6-6. They are now 7.5 games ahead of the Orioles in the AL East, as the Orioles have struggled since playing the Arizona Diamondbacks (5-9) and are losing ground fast in the Wild Card race as well. After going 29-9 in one-run decisions in 2012, the Orioles are now 14-23 in in 2013, and lost the last seven such decisions they have been involved in. Highlights.

MILWAUKEE (58-74) VS. PITTSBURGH (77-55) (7-1 PIT) - Marlon Byrd made his debut, hit a three-run home run, and the Pirates rebounded from their 7-6 defeat on Tuesday. The beat goes on. They inch closer to a non-losing season with their 77th victory. Highlights.

MIAMI (49-82) VS. WASHINGTON (67-65) (4-3 WSH) - A 7th inning rally put the Nationals over the top, as they improve to being two games over .500 for the first time since they were 47-45 on the season, over 50 games ago. It has been a disappointing season overall, but they have finally started to play like they were expected to much earlier in the season. In all likelihood, far too little, far too late.

CLEVELAND (71-61) VS. ATLANTA (80-52) (3-2 ATL) - Chris Johnson had a two-out walk-off hit to continue his career season, the Braves improved to an MLB-best 46-18 at home, and the Braves took the second game of the series from the Indians. Cleveland has a 71-61 record and still sits well in the wild card race, #3 overall in that department, but their inability to beat contending teams continues to manifest itself. 

OAKLAND (75-57) vs. DETROIT (77-56) (14-4 OAK) - Is there a team more prone to these weird bits of hot and cold play than the Oakland Athletics? After a 5-7 stretch of very underwhelming play, including dropping 2/3 at home to the poor Astros and Mariners, the A's have returned to the venue of the team that prematurely ended their dream 2012 season and proceeded to pound three of their stellar right-handed pitchers, winning for the third straight time at Comerica Park. In only 24 innings of play, the A's have plated 28 runs in games started by Anibal Sanchez, Justin Verlander, and Doug Fister. Brandon Moss continues to be an under-appreciated source of power, belting two more home runs and now sitting at 24 on the season. After dropping 2/3 in Oakland in April, the A's have now won the season series from the Tigers and can complete the rare four-game sweep on Thursday afternoon. The A's still sit 2.5 behind the Rangers in the AL West, but with the recent losses for the Indians and Orioles, their lead in the Wild Card race is beginning to get a bit loftier. Their other Wild Card foe right now are the Tampa Bay Rays, and they meet this weekend for three games in Oakland to further settle their differences.

ANAHEIM (59-72) VS. TAMPA BAY (75-56) (4-1 TB) - Chris Archer continued to make his case for Rookie of the Year, as he lowered his seasonal ERA to 2.81 behind seven innings of one-run ball, and the Rays won rather easily against Garrett Richards and the Angels to bounce back from blowing a 9th inning lead on Tuesday night. With David Price pitching on Thursday afternoon, it is hard to imagine the Rays dropping the rubber game before beginning that crucial series with Oakland.

PHILADELPHIA (61-72) VS. NY METS (59-72) (6-2 PHI) - Cole Hamels and Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched. The Mets fell to 2-6 on their homestand. Otherwise, nothing of relevance here.

HOUSTON (44-88) vs. CHICAGO (56-76) (6-1 CHW) - Chris Sale pitched. White Sox won. Chicago actually has been on a good run of form of late, but at 56-76, it's not gonna help 2013 in any way shape or form. Just goes to show that, when Chris Sale gets a modicum of run support, he generally wins. He has had the worst run support in the AL in 2013 to date.

CINCINNATI (75-59) VS. ST. LOUIS (78-55) (10-0 CIN) - The Cardinals were 10-4 on the season against the Reds entering this game tonight, having successfully taken 2/3 in all four prior meetings and taking the first two games of this series. Behind a six-run 1st inning against ace Adam Wainwright, the Reds avoided the sweep, but questions still remain about the Reds. It's simply not excusable to lose 66% against a key division rival in a tight race. There are four games left in Cincinnati later this season, and no doubt it will be put up or shut up time for the Reds. They cannot win the season series at this point, but a strong showing in that final series could alter the picture of the NL Central and Wild Card races in a huge way. Salvage victory achieved.

KANSAS CITY (68-64) VS. MINNESOTA (57-74) (8-1 KC) - The Royals improved to 7-2 at Target Field in 2013 and have now won four straight after a seven game losing streak that basically ended their playoff chances. In any case, now at 68-64, there's a good chance the Royals can still get that first winning season in a decade. Was it worth trading away the promising Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi away for? Probably not.

SAN FRANCISCO (59-74) VS. COLORADO (63-72) (5-4 COL) - Rockies won the rubber game as Jhoulys Chacin threw 6.2 no-hit innings. 

SAN DIEGO (60-73) VS. ARIZONA (68-64) (5-1 SD) - Padres avoided the sweep in the desert after jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the first and never surrendering it.

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

The Unexpected Success of the 2013 Boston Red Sox

    Coming into the 2013 Major League Baseball season, there was an expectation for some unusual results relative to recent history inside the AL Eastern division. Since the 1995 season, the AL East has largely been a division run by the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox; indeed, the Yankees have won thirteen (13) division titles and been the American League Wild Card recipient four (4) other times in that time span. Conversely, though the Red Sox only have two division titles in that same time frame, they were the Wild Card recipient seven (7) times in the same time-frame. All told, that equates to 17 playoff appearances for the Yankees and an additional nine for the Red Sox, with a combined seven championships and nine American League pennants to go along with that success. Although the Tampa Bay Rays have been a formidable foe in their own right to those two Eastern giants since 2008, the AL East has still largely been a division controlled by the two major Northeastern franchises since the 1994 re-alignment.
 
    2013 was expected to be the year where the shift from the traditional powers to the up-and-comers (or, in the Rays case, the established threat) would be complete, if for even just a year or two. The Yankees entered the season with injuries and holes all over their roster, and the Red Sox came into the season a complete unknown; beneficiaries of a few injury comebacks from 2012 in David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury and a few solid off-season acquisitions that, in some cases, were panned for the length of the contracts (Shane Victorino, Ryan Dempster, and Jonny Gomes were all inked to multi-year contracts; Mike Napoli also initially signed a multi-year deal until he failed a physical and settled for a one-year pact). All told, the general expectation was the Red Sox would finish anywhere between 75-85 wins, depending on how the new pick-ups fared and how well the Red Sox, as an organization, could move on from the malaise that had begun to set in over that clubhouse in September 2011 and had continued to poison the atmosphere throughout Bobby Valentine's ill-fated 2012 campaign as the manager of the team.

   These expectations, as it has turned out, have been thoroughly off the mark, and have been off the mark since the first game of the season. A team expected to be average at best, the Red Sox have not spent a day at or below .500 since Opening Day, as they jumped out of the gates fast with a 4-2 start with series victories at Yankee Stadium and the Rogers Centre' in Toronto. Following a 3-2 walk-off victory over the Tampa Bay Rays on April 15, they sat with a solid 8-4 mark, set to travel to Cleveland, when the infamous Boston Marathon bombings occurred, and, with a city reeling from the tragedy, the Red Sox instead took off and never looked back, as they sprinted out to a 20-8 start to the season and have continued to build on their record from there.

   The key question now becomes about what has been the source of the Red Sox surprising success this season? For one, they are back to being an elite offense (relative to the rest of the league) as they rank second in the league in runs per game, at 5.07 (only .01 behind the Detroit Tigers) and have a run differential of +133, which ranks second in the AL (trailing the Tigers) and third in MLB overall. Some of these sources fueling the Red Sox offense have, no doubt, been unexpected. Jonny Gomes has been an excellent platoon bat for the Red Sox, providing the right-handed power at a right-handed friendly ballpark, as he has slugged his way to a .334 wOBA and wRC+ of 105, and these numbers have trended upwards since May 28, when he had bottomed out with a .596 OPS total (now sitting at .760). Mike Carp was a low-end acquisition during Spring Training, and with good reason, posting only a .698 OPS against right-handed pitchers in his previous three seasons with the Seattle Mariners, but he has shattered all conceivable expectations with a .908 OPS (.388 wOBA and 142 wRC+), thanks to a sky-high BABIP of .402, a total that is unsustainable given that his line drive and groundball rates are right in line with career norms, but not susceptible to the same levels of regression given his platoon status. Daniel Nava has been in the top-10 of the American League all season with his OBP (.380), thanks to a selective approach at the plate that is fueled by working deep counts and a stellar line drive rate of 24.7%, which ranks 12th in the American League on the season.

   In addition, the Red Sox starting pitching staff has been quite remarkable in its own right. The Red Sox still rank in the middle of the pack in the American League in runs given up, though this is misleading in terms of forward-thinking progress. Clay Buchholz, prior to going on the DL in early June with a neck injury, was the undisputed best starter in the American League to that point of the season. His K/9 rate was 8.64, a moderate 3.09 BB/9, but most importantly, had done a stellar job at using the movement on his fastball to create downhill movement that resulted in many pitches being hit harmlessly onto the ground. The only nitpick one could have is that he was/is due for regression his flyball to home run ratio, which sits at a miniscule 3.2 on the season (league average is approximately 10.6), but this can be misleading. Buchholz, who has been battling various back and neck problems for the majority of his major league career, posted a 5.6 ratio in his only other fully-healthy season, in 2010, when he posted an AL-best 2.33 ERA, backed up by worse peripherals than his 2013 results would bear out (he had a 3.61 FIP and 4.07 xFIP for 2010; those numbers sit at a sparkling 2.45 and 3.18 for his body of work in 2013).

   It would stand to reason, then, that the Red Sox could be in trouble with Buchholz on the DL, correct? His last appearance to date was June 8 against the Anaheim Angels, and the Red Sox were 38-25 after his victory on that night, but, instead of faltering, the Red Sox instead have kept their winning ways, going 41-30 since Buchholz entered the DL, a winning percentage only moderately worse than they had with Buchholz, and the majority of that time was before they had acquired Jake Peavy from the last place Chicago White Sox to bolster the rotation back up. Buchholz is expected to return before the season ends, and when you factor that together with Peavy, who has been an exceptional acquisition for Boston, pitching to a 3.31 ERA and a WHIP under 1 since the trade on July 30, the unexpected resurgence of John Lackey, who features his fastball and slider on 84% of his pitches, an increase from pre-Tommy John surgery seasons and has showcased the best command of his career, on par with his stellar 2007 and 2008 seasons with the Angels that helped give him the big contract from the Red Sox in the first place. Jon Lester has pitched to an ERA of around 2.5 since the All-Star Break, when he received extended rest from John Farrell to help "re-fuel" the engine after Lester struggled quite badly from the latter portion of May through to the All-Star Break. This doesn't even discuss Felix Doubront or Ryan Dempster, who aren't likely to factor in to any playoff rotation for the Red Sox, though Doubront would give the Red Sox another situational lefty or perhaps useful multi-inning relief pitcher when the situation comes to pass; the inefficiency in his pitch counts that hurt Doubront in 2012 have been resolved in a large way in 2013, paving the way for his success and helping balance the Red Sox rotation with Lester contrasted to the three right-handed pitchers that currently consist of Lackey, Peavy, and Dempster.

   In truth, to interject some personal opinion into all of this, I have never really believed in this Red Sox roster being a legitimate World Series contender, and this is a stubborn belief that, as with most stubborn beliefs of a stubborn individual, is not something that is likely to disappear into the ether at any point soon. John Lackey had been thoroughly awful in his first two seasons with the Red Sox, and though Tommy John surgery has a way of resurrecting pitchers' careers to an extent, this would seem to imply that Lackey was pitching through ulnar collateral ligament problems in 2010 and especially 2011, and given the degree to which those injuries can be debilitating, I have a hard time believing this is something that he just pitched through, knowing full well that he was killing his team every time he pitched in September of 2011, when the Red Sox suffered the fateful 7-20 collapse that knocked them out of the playoffs after having a 9.5 game lead at the beginning of the month. Jon Lester has shown some marked inconsistency; if he could fall off the mark so easily after a stellar first 1.5 months of 2013, why should anyone be so certain that he won't have a fall off again at some point later on? Clay Buchholz is slated to return soon to the Red Sox rotation, but this is someone who is perpetually battling neck and back problems, which are notoriously chronic and who knows whether Buchholz will ever really be able to stay healthy for an extended period of time? It's a gamble. The Texas Rangers were likely expecting to see some return of guys like Matt Harrison or Colby Lewis this season, but that's not gonna happen at this point, and the Red Sox should probably operate accordingly; Buchholz should return, but expecting the Clay Buchholz of April-June would be enormously foolish.

   But this is misleading, anyway. Where my skepticism really lies is in the sustainability of the offensive unit. Mike Carp and Daniel Nava have track records of being underwhelming ballplayers. Dustin Pedroia, thanks in part to a torn ligament in his thumb, has had one of the worst seasons, offensively, of his career. Shane Victorino has seen a rise in his OPS from .727 on 8/16 to .792 on 8/28 thanks to a scorching-hot streak he has embarked on, but before that was a relatively mediocre corner OF from an offensive POV, and would it really shock anyone if he fell back into a slump of sorts soon here-after? The Red Sox have a stellar approach at the plate, but I don't see a lineup that is going to be as lethal in a playoff setting, and before this is questioned as being illogical - I have seen many Yankees offenses that could do it all; hit for power, hit for average, and work deep counts and walks - falter badly in playoff settings; 2006 is the greatest example of this. Playoff settings have a weird way of either bringing out the very best or very worst in ballplayers.

   From Day 1, I have maintained a belief in the Detroit Tigers being the favorite to win the American League pennant, and despite the frustrating inconsistency that team showcases from a mediocre division, that belief has not been shaken. Nonetheless, there is a great deal of credit that the Red Sox deserve for the season they have had in 2013; after the dismal 69-93 season that was the worst season the franchise had experienced in 48 years, they have returned to normalcy, playing on a very Theo Epstein-like pace for 95 wins on the season and a possible (probable?) division crown, and a playoff appearance for the first time since 2009. They have certainly done better than what could have reasonably been expected during Spring Training.

Monday, August 26, 2013

Introduction (I guess)

(take a nice, long look at the greatest art work on Sonic the Hedgehog; truly riveting)

Giddy up!

My name is Tony, and I am the curator of Kramer Sports Industries, a blog that I am starting as a means of subsidizing my proclivity to lengthy analytical pieces to a format that is more appropriate to such ventures.

While I do pride myself as being capable of objective analysis of sports teams, I refuse to try and hide my allegiances. I am a life-long fan of the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Florida Gators. The obvious question becomes about how did the Yankees end up in that mix, but the easy answer is that I am a product of the '90s, and my allegiances were forged during the brief time frame between when the Tampa Bay Lightning first took the ice (October 1992) and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays' inception as a baseball team (April 1998). My Yankee fandom has led to secondary allegiances towards the New York Giants and New York Rangers, though I cannot fathom those teams ever meaning more to me than the Bucs or Lightning, barring my moving to New York in the future.

Unfortunately, as a baseball and football fan with almost equal passion, there's no real "good" time to begin a blog that will feature discussions on the two sports. Starting in April (for baseball) would mean a dearth of football content (as of August 26, 2013, discussing the NFL Draft is not a specialty of mine, in the slightest way). Starting at the end of August means only catching baseball at the tail end of the regular season, and it is a regret of mine in that regard to be starting this blog at such a late juncture of the baseball season, but alas, that's the way it goes, sometimes. I also enjoy talking NHL hockey and even a little bit of European soccer (as well as the first three editions of Sonic the Hedgehog; long live Sonic the Hedgehog, STH 2 and Sonic 3 & Knuckles).

In time, it will be interesting to see the direction this blog takes; I consider myself a student of the games of football and hockey; baseball is very much my strongest sport within where much of my knowledge is rather innate and intuitive, while with football, for instance, I still consider myself in need of learning about the game (i.e. - how does a 3-4 defense work, what are the basics of it, who holds what responsibilities, etc.). To that end, websites I have used for research purposes such as the ProFootballFocus are valuable beyond words.

For the remainder of the upcoming month, I will likely talk more baseball than football. My football notes and observations will probably come to the fore-front more once the baseball season ends and there's not any chances left to bitch about the Yankees on a day-in/day-out basis like there still is as of today. I look forward to this venture, and I certainly encourage feedback on how to make it better. I also encourage feedback in the form of telling me when I am completely off on something or if I'm just being an overall ignoramous or moron. I could not finish this opening post to this blog venture without revealing in obvious detail that I am a very cynical, very weary, and, overall, an enormously snarky individual who may or may not have recurring OCD problems that display themselves in ways that can only make on-lookers think that I am the biggest lunatic on the planet.

If I ever start talking about "when does a pizza become a pizza" or whether I think there is an efficient way to create bladder systems for oil tankers, or, hell, when I start talking that I've heard about problematic bathroom stalls at Yankee Stadium, well, then you know I've started to fly off the deep end regarding my undisputed favorite character in television history. I have nothing but great things to say about Seinfeld as a television show, and even though I have not watched the show with regularity for a few years now, much of what I saw still sticks with me even today.

Is there any other irrelevant conjecture I can think to add to this opening post? I was a guest on Episode #7 of the Mike & Greg Talk Baseball podcast in July (the Mike & Greg shows can be found there among others from the self-described podcasting fool known as "infrared41" in internet circles). That's about the extent of my prior internet ventures that doesn't involve writing a whole ton of text and clicking some button that prints it out for the world to see and laugh at.

I am on Twitter @KramerIndustry. There is a great deal of Yankees-related tweeting during the baseball season. You have been warned.

So there's that. I've written far more than I cared to write for this, which actually is quite apropos for my writing style. I look forward to writing about actual sports analysis next time around.

Cheers.