Coming into the 2013 Major League Baseball season, there was an expectation for some unusual results relative to recent history inside the AL Eastern division. Since the 1995 season, the AL East has largely been a division run by the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox; indeed, the Yankees have won thirteen (13) division titles and been the American League Wild Card recipient four (4) other times in that time span. Conversely, though the Red Sox only have two division titles in that same time frame, they were the Wild Card recipient seven (7) times in the same time-frame. All told, that equates to 17 playoff appearances for the Yankees and an additional nine for the Red Sox, with a combined seven championships and nine American League pennants to go along with that success. Although the Tampa Bay Rays have been a formidable foe in their own right to those two Eastern giants since 2008, the AL East has still largely been a division controlled by the two major Northeastern franchises since the 1994 re-alignment.
2013 was expected to be the year where the shift from the traditional powers to the up-and-comers (or, in the Rays case, the established threat) would be complete, if for even just a year or two. The Yankees entered the season with injuries and holes all over their roster, and the Red Sox came into the season a complete unknown; beneficiaries of a few injury comebacks from 2012 in David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury and a few solid off-season acquisitions that, in some cases, were panned for the length of the contracts (Shane Victorino, Ryan Dempster, and Jonny Gomes were all inked to multi-year contracts; Mike Napoli also initially signed a multi-year deal until he failed a physical and settled for a one-year pact). All told, the general expectation was the Red Sox would finish anywhere between 75-85 wins, depending on how the new pick-ups fared and how well the Red Sox, as an organization, could move on from the malaise that had begun to set in over that clubhouse in September 2011 and had continued to poison the atmosphere throughout Bobby Valentine's ill-fated 2012 campaign as the manager of the team.
These expectations, as it has turned out, have been thoroughly off the mark, and have been off the mark since the first game of the season. A team expected to be average at best, the Red Sox have not spent a day at or below .500 since Opening Day, as they jumped out of the gates fast with a 4-2 start with series victories at Yankee Stadium and the Rogers Centre' in Toronto. Following a 3-2 walk-off victory over the Tampa Bay Rays on April 15, they sat with a solid 8-4 mark, set to travel to Cleveland, when the infamous Boston Marathon bombings occurred, and, with a city reeling from the tragedy, the Red Sox instead took off and never looked back, as they sprinted out to a 20-8 start to the season and have continued to build on their record from there.
The key question now becomes about what has been the source of the Red Sox surprising success this season? For one, they are back to being an elite offense (relative to the rest of the league) as they rank second in the league in runs per game, at 5.07 (only .01 behind the Detroit Tigers) and have a run differential of +133, which ranks second in the AL (trailing the Tigers) and third in MLB overall. Some of these sources fueling the Red Sox offense have, no doubt, been unexpected. Jonny Gomes has been an excellent platoon bat for the Red Sox, providing the right-handed power at a right-handed friendly ballpark, as he has slugged his way to a .334 wOBA and wRC+ of 105, and these numbers have trended upwards since May 28, when he had bottomed out with a .596 OPS total (now sitting at .760). Mike Carp was a low-end acquisition during Spring Training, and with good reason, posting only a .698 OPS against right-handed pitchers in his previous three seasons with the Seattle Mariners, but he has shattered all conceivable expectations with a .908 OPS (.388 wOBA and 142 wRC+), thanks to a sky-high BABIP of .402, a total that is unsustainable given that his line drive and groundball rates are right in line with career norms, but not susceptible to the same levels of regression given his platoon status. Daniel Nava has been in the top-10 of the American League all season with his OBP (.380), thanks to a selective approach at the plate that is fueled by working deep counts and a stellar line drive rate of 24.7%, which ranks 12th in the American League on the season.
In addition, the Red Sox starting pitching staff has been quite remarkable in its own right. The Red Sox still rank in the middle of the pack in the American League in runs given up, though this is misleading in terms of forward-thinking progress. Clay Buchholz, prior to going on the DL in early June with a neck injury, was the undisputed best starter in the American League to that point of the season. His K/9 rate was 8.64, a moderate 3.09 BB/9, but most importantly, had done a stellar job at using the movement on his fastball to create downhill movement that resulted in many pitches being hit harmlessly onto the ground. The only nitpick one could have is that he was/is due for regression his flyball to home run ratio, which sits at a miniscule 3.2 on the season (league average is approximately 10.6), but this can be misleading. Buchholz, who has been battling various back and neck problems for the majority of his major league career, posted a 5.6 ratio in his only other fully-healthy season, in 2010, when he posted an AL-best 2.33 ERA, backed up by worse peripherals than his 2013 results would bear out (he had a 3.61 FIP and 4.07 xFIP for 2010; those numbers sit at a sparkling 2.45 and 3.18 for his body of work in 2013).
It would stand to reason, then, that the Red Sox could be in trouble with Buchholz on the DL, correct? His last appearance to date was June 8 against the Anaheim Angels, and the Red Sox were 38-25 after his victory on that night, but, instead of faltering, the Red Sox instead have kept their winning ways, going 41-30 since Buchholz entered the DL, a winning percentage only moderately worse than they had with Buchholz, and the majority of that time was before they had acquired Jake Peavy from the last place Chicago White Sox to bolster the rotation back up. Buchholz is expected to return before the season ends, and when you factor that together with Peavy, who has been an exceptional acquisition for Boston, pitching to a 3.31 ERA and a WHIP under 1 since the trade on July 30, the unexpected resurgence of John Lackey, who features his fastball and slider on 84% of his pitches, an increase from pre-Tommy John surgery seasons and has showcased the best command of his career, on par with his stellar 2007 and 2008 seasons with the Angels that helped give him the big contract from the Red Sox in the first place. Jon Lester has pitched to an ERA of around 2.5 since the All-Star Break, when he received extended rest from John Farrell to help "re-fuel" the engine after Lester struggled quite badly from the latter portion of May through to the All-Star Break. This doesn't even discuss Felix Doubront or Ryan Dempster, who aren't likely to factor in to any playoff rotation for the Red Sox, though Doubront would give the Red Sox another situational lefty or perhaps useful multi-inning relief pitcher when the situation comes to pass; the inefficiency in his pitch counts that hurt Doubront in 2012 have been resolved in a large way in 2013, paving the way for his success and helping balance the Red Sox rotation with Lester contrasted to the three right-handed pitchers that currently consist of Lackey, Peavy, and Dempster.
In truth, to interject some personal opinion into all of this, I have never really believed in this Red Sox roster being a legitimate World Series contender, and this is a stubborn belief that, as with most stubborn beliefs of a stubborn individual, is not something that is likely to disappear into the ether at any point soon. John Lackey had been thoroughly awful in his first two seasons with the Red Sox, and though Tommy John surgery has a way of resurrecting pitchers' careers to an extent, this would seem to imply that Lackey was pitching through ulnar collateral ligament problems in 2010 and especially 2011, and given the degree to which those injuries can be debilitating, I have a hard time believing this is something that he just pitched through, knowing full well that he was killing his team every time he pitched in September of 2011, when the Red Sox suffered the fateful 7-20 collapse that knocked them out of the playoffs after having a 9.5 game lead at the beginning of the month. Jon Lester has shown some marked inconsistency; if he could fall off the mark so easily after a stellar first 1.5 months of 2013, why should anyone be so certain that he won't have a fall off again at some point later on? Clay Buchholz is slated to return soon to the Red Sox rotation, but this is someone who is perpetually battling neck and back problems, which are notoriously chronic and who knows whether Buchholz will ever really be able to stay healthy for an extended period of time? It's a gamble. The Texas Rangers were likely expecting to see some return of guys like Matt Harrison or Colby Lewis this season, but that's not gonna happen at this point, and the Red Sox should probably operate accordingly; Buchholz should return, but expecting the Clay Buchholz of April-June would be enormously foolish.
But this is misleading, anyway. Where my skepticism really lies is in the sustainability of the offensive unit. Mike Carp and Daniel Nava have track records of being underwhelming ballplayers. Dustin Pedroia, thanks in part to a torn ligament in his thumb, has had one of the worst seasons, offensively, of his career. Shane Victorino has seen a rise in his OPS from .727 on 8/16 to .792 on 8/28 thanks to a scorching-hot streak he has embarked on, but before that was a relatively mediocre corner OF from an offensive POV, and would it really shock anyone if he fell back into a slump of sorts soon here-after? The Red Sox have a stellar approach at the plate, but I don't see a lineup that is going to be as lethal in a playoff setting, and before this is questioned as being illogical - I have seen many Yankees offenses that could do it all; hit for power, hit for average, and work deep counts and walks - falter badly in playoff settings; 2006 is the greatest example of this. Playoff settings have a weird way of either bringing out the very best or very worst in ballplayers.
From Day 1, I have maintained a belief in the Detroit Tigers being the favorite to win the American League pennant, and despite the frustrating inconsistency that team showcases from a mediocre division, that belief has not been shaken. Nonetheless, there is a great deal of credit that the Red Sox deserve for the season they have had in 2013; after the dismal 69-93 season that was the worst season the franchise had experienced in 48 years, they have returned to normalcy, playing on a very Theo Epstein-like pace for 95 wins on the season and a possible (probable?) division crown, and a playoff appearance for the first time since 2009. They have certainly done better than what could have reasonably been expected during Spring Training.
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